Zero Dark Purdy
Bet the backups this week.
Week 13 Recap
Around the League
The Kansas City Chief’s owner Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against the conference rival, with the Bengals beating the best team in the AFC 27-24.
Jimmy Garopollo is out for the year with a broken foot, leaving the game against the Fins in the first half, and backup Brock Purdy entered the game. Mr. Irrelevant outplayed Tua, with the 49ers cruising to a dominant 33-17, with some help from garbage time touchdowns. San Francisco looked dominant, but can Brock lead the team on a deep playoff run?
Aaron Rodgers still owns the Bears, but the Bears now appear to own one of the best picks in next year’s draft. The Packers won 28-19 in Chicago, who now has the 2nd spot in the 2023 draft.
As soon as the wheels started to fall off the New Orleans bus in the 4th quarter, it seemed inevitable that Tom Brady would come back to beat the Saints. It was like rewatching Scott’s Tots. The Buccaneers scored 14 points in the last three minutes, with the Red Rifle unable to fire his team to a first down late in the game.
Model Performance
The model didn’t do anything spectacular last week, going 5-7-1, with an ROI of -1.26%. Eagles-Titans going over by only one point and a tie prevented a week deep into the green, but that’s just how the betting goes at times.
Worst Beat
Graham Gano was very, very close to making a 58-yard field goal, clinching a game vs. the Commanders in overtime, and cashing in the Giants ML ticket. Unfortunately for me and New York’s playoff chances, he barely missed, with the game ending in a tie.
Week 14 Picks
Thursday Night Parlay
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
Under 44.5 — Rams +6.5 (5u)
The Under-Rams spread is +218 on Fanduel. The model puts the probability of the parlay at 46%, giving an EV of +0.46u. This is an ugly parlay, which is fitting for what will likely be an ugly game.
I can’t say this is the parlay I’d pick subjectively, but if you look closer, it makes some sense. McVay is a far better coach than McDaniels, and the Raider’s offense has struggled at times this year, even though they’ve found their footing as of late. If the Rams are going to keep it close though, it would make sense that it’s in a low-scoring game.
Yuck. Go Rams.
Cincinnati is Rolling
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals -6.5 (10u)
The Bengals have been absolutely cooking on both sides of the ball. Losing go-ball merchant Ja’Marr Chase may have been a blessing in disguise for the Cincinnati offense, as they’ve strayed away from their fuck-it throws downfield and have been steadily marching it instead.
The Bengals’ defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, has been getting some press lately for his sharp at-half adjustments, getting shoutouts from many major publications. He should be able to box up the Cleveland offense while Zac Taylor dispatches the Browns’ third-worst run defense (PFF).
This one could be a shootout, or it could be a blowout, but it will be a big Bengals win. The model puts their true spread at -10.5, with a cover probability of 67%. In Joe Sheisty we trust.
Mr. Irrelevant vs. TB12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
49ers -3.5 (10u)
Brock Purdy, let’s ride.
The CoRellia model doesn’t factor in injuries. While this is certainly a weakness at a macro level, it’s useful when looking at individual games in context. CoRellia has the 49ers at -11 with Jimmy G at the helm, with a win probability of 82.4%. How much is Brock Purdy going to change that? Even if it’s a full touchdown, it would still put the predicted line at -4, a full half-point difference from the current spread.
The Buccaneers have not been good this year. They rank 20th in offensive EPA to San Francisco’s 8th. They’re 6-6, with two dubious wins on last-minute, game-winning, how-did-Tom-Brady-just-do-that drives against the Rams and Saints. By virtually every metric other than starting quarterback, the 49ers are a far better group than the Buccaneers. Kyle Shanahan should put the mediocre Tampa Bay run defense in a veritable torture chamber, limiting the number of oopsies that Backup Brock can make. I’ll bet on a better team at home any time.
The Ugliest Game
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 36.5 — Ravens ML +291 (5u)
This game will probably be super gross. It features two solid defenses, a backup quarterback, a rookie quarterback, and two teams that have been tripping over their own feet all year.
I think the Ravens are a better team, and I’ll choose them to come out on top in this one. Kenny Pickett has been solid so far this year, with a PFF grade of 67.7, edging out both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford. On the other hand, Tyler Huntley is a very solid backup, which means he’s a below-average starter, but he kind of vaguely resembles Lamar Jackson every once in a while. If you have a small TV.
I’m dubious of the Steelers too. They’ve been hot lately, but their two wins have come against Jeff Saturday’s Colts and the unusual Falcons. There’s some value to the plus money here on what seems like more of a toss-up than anything. The model gives them a 72.6% win probability with Lamar, and he might even play.
36.5 is a low, low line. The model predicts an average total score of 39, or about four touchdowns and four field goals. Surely these two offenses will be able to average a touchdown and a field goal each quarter, right? Right?
The Noon Nightmare
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Vikings +116 (10u)
The Vikings are 10-2. The Lions are 5-7. Sometimes, it feels like it should just be that simple.
Advanced statistics seem to think that these teams are far more even, but the eye test doesn’t agree. PFF gives the Vikings and Lions an overall team grade of 86.1 and 74.3, respectively. Those rank 4th and 23rd in the NFL for the year. The Vikings are a better team, in almost any way that you cut it. They seem to have the edge in coaching, overall talent, and record, so why are the Lions favored?
The model actually has the Vikings at +2.3, with a win probability of 51.05%. The Lions’ explosive offense could lead to a big win, but I have the Vikings coming out on top more times than not. If this game was played 100 times, how many would the Vikes win? To me, it seems like at least 60. The line scares me to death, but the game being at noon pushed me over the edge. Big Kirko should add another chain on Sunday.
The Alamo
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Under 45.5 - Cowboys ML +110 (5u)
This game is going to be over by halftime. Dak Prescott is too precise, and the Cowboys’ defense is too strong for a potential upset. I’m hoping this game resembles the 30-15 win by the Dolphins over the Texans a couple of weeks ago. As long as we avoid garbage time touchdowns, the under should be okay. In other words, this bet hinges on the Houston offense keeping the Cowboys’ defense from scoring. Yikes!
Not so Fast
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Under 52.5 (5u)
After Tua almost died and then resurrected back into the starting lineup, the Fins’ offense has been rolling. Maybe we should all watch MacGruber. There’s been a lot of discourse on the Miami offense, so suffice it to say that the unit has been really, really, really good.
On the other side of the coin, the Chargers can look devastating at times when their star quarterback has the ball in his hands. J Herbo is an absolute nut, and with Keenan Allen playing you can count on at least one rope down the field.
53 points is just a lot of points for one game.
This is the only line of the week above 50 points. Since 2010, totals of 50 or more with the model predicting less than 50 points have gone over just 29.13% of the time.
The model is extremely confident that this game won’t go to that many points, with a predicted total of just 41.12. The over has 59% of the tickets. I’m happy to fade the public.
Shot in the Dark
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Jaguars +176 (5u)
To be honest, I do not see the Jaguars winning this game. The model gives them a 47% chance to win, which means the bet has some good value. This is a purely math-based pick.
Monday Night Pick
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Under 44.5 (5u)
The model thinks that the spreads on this game are almost exact. I don’t want to pretend that I have any idea what’s going to happen. 44.5 seems like a bit much for these two teams, and the model gives the bet an EV of +0.72u, but I would be surprised with a final score of 42-38 either.
Overall
This portfolio checks out with both the model and the eye test for me. I can’t wait to see how it turns out this week.
